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Somali Civil War

Somalia, Horn of Africa

The Somali conflict is a multifaceted dispute triggered by the fall of President Said Barre regime on 27 January 1991. General Barre’s dictatorship was synonymous with extreme brutality, suppression of opposition groups, both nationalistic and Islamic, and exacerbation of interclan rivalries (clannism). By 1988, the dissatisfaction with the government led to nationalist groups throughout the country, with Northern Somalia (modern-day Somaliland) leading the charge, to attack government and military posts, prompting the First Somali Civil war (1988-1991).

The fall of Said Barre’s regime and the Somali Civil War created a power vacuum in which nationalist and Islamic groups, warlords, clan and sub-clan militias and other actors aimed to carve out swathes of territory for their own governance. Subsequently, regional and international institutions initiated various peace and reconciliation processes in an attempt to create a stable and robust federal government, with various degrees of success. The inter clan rivalries have fuelled the tension between the Federal government and the regional states, making the consensus and state-building, as well as peacebuilding, process strenuous. The chaos resulted in the declaration of independence by Somaliland in 1991, though still not recognised by any nation in the world, and Somalia maintains its authority over the northern territory. In 1998, the Puntland region in Northern Somalia declared partial autonomy, meaning that they reserve the right to operate independently but still can be part of the Federal Government of Somalia. Conflict as a result of both internal and external factors has resulted in more than a million deaths, with many more fleeing to neighbouring countries.

In the early 2000s, there were renewed efforts to rebuild the Somali central government, which involved a dual state-building and peacebuilding process. The renewed efforts, spearheaded by the regional institution Intergovernmental Authority in Development (IGAD), led to the signing of the Arta Declaration in 2000 which addressed representation in government, a significant obstacle to the Somali peace process. The declaration asserted that all future Somali governments would use the 4:5 formula which states that the four main clans – Dorad, Hawiye, Dir (includes the Isaaq) and Rahanweym (Digil-Mirifle) will have equal representation in government while the other smaller clans will share the rest of the representation. Though Somali politicians, with the support of the regional institutions, attempted to address clan grievances, the transitional governments – the Transitional National Government and Assembly (TNG/A) (2000-2004) and Transitional Federal Government/Parliament (TFG/P) (2004-2012) – were plagued with inefficiency, infighting and corruption. Additionally, the insecurity in the country forced the President, Cabinet and the majority of the Members of Parliament to operate from Kenya, which contributed to their inability to govern.

Despite the challenges brought upon by Al-Shabaab, an insurgent group terrorising the country since 2007, the TFG/P managed to create a new constitution which effectively led to the first election since 1969. On 20 August 2012, the Federal Government of Somalia (FGS) was born under the leadership of Hassan Sheikh Mohamed (2012 -2016). Similar to the transitional governments, the FGS aimed to stabilise the country through building a national consensus between the government and the newly defined regional states – Jubaland, Puntland, HirShabelle, South West, Galmudug and Somaliland. Each regional state, which is representative of the traditional clan and sub-clan territorial boundaries, was tasked with creating spaces where clan rivalries and grievances could be addressed.

Since the creation of the Federal Government of Somalia (FGS) in 2012, each federal government has focused on creating a cohesive and inclusive political space that takes into account clan politics and alliances, as well as the threat of Al-Shabaab. One of the biggest obstacles inhibiting Somalia from moving forward cohesively is the role of clan interest, i.e. clannism, in politics. The majority of the people in power propel the interests of the clan and sub-clan rather than the interest of a united Somalia. As a result, politicians are always sceptical of the intentions of others, and therefore, unable to make significant changes. The inability for the FGS and the regional governments to work towards the common goal of creating a prosperous Somalia, fuelled by lack of trust and clan politics, is another major obstacle. Finally, the failure to put clan politics aside for the betterment of the country has slowed down security sector reform which calls for the integration of clan and sub-clan militia into the armed forces.

As to date, the FGS must find a way to balance the interest of the state and the sub-clans while tackling the threat of Al-Shabaab, and to a lesser extent, the Islamic State in Somalia (ISS). Refer to the Al-Shabaab and ISS pages to understand the security angle of the Somali conflict.

Screenshot_2020-11-24 Islamic State In Somalia

“The people of Somalia just do not have a voice. They are to me the most forgotten people in the world.”K’naan – Singer/songwriter/poet

Key Facts

12.3 Million

Population

1 Million

Deaths

Ongoing since

2007

Where: Somalia, Horn of Africa

Dates of conflict: 1988-1991, 1991 – 2000, 2007 – present

Refugees/Internally Displaced Peoples (IDPs) – 1.1 million

The Players

The Federal Government of Somalia (FGS)

Following the collapse of the Siad Barre Dictatorship in January 1991, Somalia struggled to rebuild the central government. Between 1991 and 2012, the Somali government went through a period of transition as the Parliament and other key officials, with the support of the international community, formed the Federal Government of Somalia (FGS). The process included agreeing to the 4:5 formula of representation, which stipulated that the four major clan-families (Dorad, Hawiye, Dir (includes the Isaaq) and Rahanweym (Digil-Mirifle)) would have equal representation in government. At the same time, the other smaller clans would share the rest of the representation.

The current central government was formed on 20 August 2012 following a constitutional change. Similarly to the previous transitional governments, the FGS needs clan and sub-clan grievances who tend to fight over land, resources, and recently, the distribution of revenue from oil. The federalist system, which divides the country into six regions (HirShabelle, Jubaland, Puntland, South West, Galmudug and Somaliland), mains to quell clan tensions. The clan rivalries not only paralyse the operations of the government and country but al-Shabaab sometimes exploits it.

With the influence of the international community, the Somali government has been forced to address the issue of women in government. The idea of women in public spaces has been a taboo in Somali culture where the political issues had traditionally been discussed among the Guutri or the traditional leaders who are men. The new constitution stipulates that the Parliament must fulfil the 30% women quota. Though the government has not met the women quota, the conversation of equality of women and men is increasingly being discussed in Somali society.

The Somali Regional government

The 2012 constitutional change that brought about the Federal Government of Somalia (FSG) created a federalist system which divides the country into regional states; 1) Galmudug, 2) Hirshabelle, 3 (South West State, 4) Jubbaland, 5) Puntland and 6) Somaliland. The capital city of Mogadishu is part of the Banadir Regional Administration which is not governed under any regional state. The Federalist system was created in an attempt to tackle the issues of lack of equal clan representation in government and division of resources. These two issues have caused many inter-clan and inter-sub-clan conflicts. Currently, the Federal Government and the regional states have a poor relationship, with two out of five states refusing to work directly with the FGS.

On paper, the federalist system can contribute to the stabilisation of Somalia, but the reality is that the implementation of the federal system has created more issues. For starters, the addition of Somaliland as a regional state is a contentious issue since they declared their independence from Somalia during the first Somali Civil War (1988-1992). No country does not recognise Somaliland though it enjoys trade relationships with most of the regional countries, as well as the Gulf States. Secondly, the recent push for exploration of oil in Somalia has turned the tensions between the regional states and the Federal Government to an all-time high. The tensions reached a tipping point when the regional government of Puntland dissolved all its relations with the Federal government. The constant tension between the regional states and the FGS has led some federal states to suspend their relationship with the central government for months at a time.

The United Nations Assistance Mission in Somalia (UNSOM)

The United Nations Assistance Mission in Somalia (UNSOM) was established on 3 June 2012 through a UNSC Resolution. UNSOM aims to support the establishment of the Federal Government of Somalia by providing advice to the government, and AMISOM on matters such as peacebuilding, governance, security sector reform, the rule of law, the democratisation of Somalia, among other issues. Currently, they are working alongside the Federal Government of Somalia to develop the 2019 portfolio of the UN-Secretary General Peacebuilding Fund, which details the new state-building projects that the two entities would undertake this year. Some of the projects focus on stabilisation of the country, especially in those recently “liberated” areas from al-Shabaab, assisting Internally Displaced Peoples (IDPs) and leveraging women’s contribution in peacebuilding while promoting gender sensitivity and equality.

The Situation

Classification: Civil war, Clannism, Humanitarian Crisis, Federalism vs. Centralised type of government

Current situation:

Prime Minister Hussein Roble has been meeting with the regional presidents, international partners and security forces to implement the historic 27 May electoral agreement. He is expected to make progress in time for the next election benchmark, the election of the Upper House of Parliament scheduled for 23 July. So far, he, and his dispute resolution committee, travelled to Gedo region, Jubaland state to find a solution to the disagreement between the pro-President Farmaajo administration in Gedo and the Jubaland Administration. The PM is also meeting with the MPs from Somaliland after the committee in charge of overseeing the election for its MPs in Mogadishu split into two camps – pro-Speaker of the Upper House and Pro-Deputy Prime Minister. Finally, Prime Minister Roble has met with the committee composed of police, military and AMISOM officials tasked with securing election polling stations, which are expected to be targeted by al-Shabaab.

Section 1400: Terrorism Links: Groups & Individuals

Somali Civil War

Last Update: 09/2024

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