0
0
Tigray Conflict
Ethiopia, Horn of Africa
The “Law Enforcement” operation in Tigray by the Ethiopian government aimed at “restoring law and order” by expelling “treasonous” elements of the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) has resulted in a humanitarian crisis. The military-led operation, which began on 4th November 2020, marked the height of rising tensions between the TPLF and Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s administration. The TPLF had been at odds with Abiy Ahmed since coming to power in 2018. Upon his accession to power, Abiy Ahmed not only removed TPLF “old guards” from top government positions but also dismantled the Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF). The EPRDF, which came to power in 1991 following the Ethiopian civil war, is a coalition of four major ethnicity-driven political parties which TPLF dominated during their 29 years in po wer. The rise of Abiy Ahmed, attributed to public frustration stemming from the political and economic marginalisation of other ethnic groups, meant the decline of TPLF’s dominance in politics. The EPRDF was also associated with gross human rights violations, including the mass detention of critics of the government and extrajudicial killings.
The trigger that set off a domino effect was the 9th September 2020 Tigray elections which were held in defiance to the national government. The National Election Board of Ethiopia (NEBE) temporarily postponed the national and regional elections as a precautionary step to curb the spread of COVID-19. The TPLF objected to the move, stating that the NEBE was enabling Abiy Ahmed to centralise power. The national elections were supposed to take place in August 2020. The 9th September 2020 elections in Tigray, which resulted in a landslide victory for the TPLF, was deemed “unconstitutional and illegal” by the Ethiopian government.
The two sides engaged in tit-for-tat exchanges between September and the beginning of the Law Enforcement operation in November 2020. In October, tensions escalated further when Ethiopia’s Upper House of Parliament voted to cut off budget subsidies to the Tigray region. The TPLF announced that the sanctions of Tigray mounted a “declaration of war” by the Ethiopian government. The Ethiopian military accused the TPLF of staging an attack on an army base, killing several soldiers.
After months of rising tension between the TPLF and the Ethiopian government, Ahmed Abiy announced the “law enforcement operation” on 4 November 2020. The Ethiopian National Defence Forces (ENDF) conducted airstrikes throughout the Tigray region. Simultaneously, its ground forces allegedly captured towns and villages from TPLF as they marched towards Mekelle, the regional capital city. TPLF engaged with the ENDF both through conventional warfare and hit-and-run tactics to slow down their progression to Mekelle. The rebel group also fired rockets into Eritrea’s capital, Asmara.
Less than a month after the Law Enforcement operation began in Tigray, Abiy Ahmed took to the media to announce that the government forces were in “full control” over Mekelle and that the conflict had officially ended. However, by the end of March 2021, Abiy Ahmed admitted that the ENDF was engaging in eight different fronts against the TPLF and allied militias. The armed resistance arm of the TPLF, Tigray Defence Forces (TDF), is conducting a guerrilla war – similar to what they engaged in before coming to power in 1991 – out in the countryside and the mountains.
The presence of Eritrean troops in Ethiopia has become a controversial issue. Both countries denied credible reports of Eritrean troops. By March 2021, Abiy Ahmed, facing pressure from the international community and possible sanctions, delayed aid money and investigation into war crimes, crimes against humanity and genocide, admitted that the Eritreans had crossed the border. He assured the international community that the Eritreans had begun the withdrawal of troops. The withdrawal of troops comes at the backdrop of overwhelming evidence of human rights violations collected by news agencies and human rights and aid organisations.
Aid agencies have raised the alarm over the worsening humanitarian situation in Tigray. By March 2021, Ethiopian Red Cross noted that 80% of the region was inaccessible. With many areas classified as hard-to-reach, approximately 3.2 million people are unable to receive aid. Some aid organisations have reported deaths due to starvation. The worsening humanitarian situation has forced many Ethiopians to cross the border into Sudan. Sudan has received hundreds of thousands of refugees in a short six months. The increased tension between Sudan and Ethiopia over disputed land, which has resulted in clashes between the two armies, and the disagreement over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam with Egypt and Sudan, could add a new dimension to the refugee and asylum-seeking programs.
Key Facts
People Killed – 600,000
People Displaced – 5.1 Million
Duration – 21 months
Where: Tigray Region, Ethiopia
Population: 6 Million (Tigray region),
Tigray militia force: 250,000 (International Crisis Group)
Dates of conflict: 4 November – Present
Deaths: 52,000 (Estimates by local organizations)
Refugees/Internally Displaced Peoples (IDPs): 200,000 Refugees in Sudan (Estimates by UNHCR), 1 million IDPs (Estimates by aid organisations)
Human rights violations and abuses: 151 massacres reported (March estimates), executions, extrajudicial killings,
Number of people who need aid: 13 million in need of humanitarian aid (World Food Program Estimation)
Attacks on refugee camps in Tigray: Reports of attacks on refugee camps, with predominantly Eritrean refugees, have been reported. Cases of death and abductions have also been reported. The attacks have resulted in the closure of two camps after armed men destroyed most of the structure in the camps.
The Situation
Classification: Ongoing conflict, humanitarian crisis, possible ethnic cleansing
Analyst’s Comments: The military victories by the Tigrayan Defence Forces (TDF) over the first two weeks in July has shifted the conflict. The Ethiopian government is scrambling to change the narrative that they are losing the conflict in Tigray by using humanitarian grounds. Though the tides have changed in favour of TDF, another conflict is brewing in Tigray. With TDF planning to retake disputed territories that Amhara forces are currently occupying, Amhara nationalists have urged all its citizens to take up arms. Other reports indicate that the Oromo Liberation Front (OLF) are also arming themselves with the intent to enter the war in Tigray. If these claims are true, the Tigray war is only going to be prolonged.
Worsening
Current situation: The tides have changed in the conflict in Tigray with the armed resistance group, Tigray Defence Forces (TDF), retaking major towns. The month of July started with the TDF conducting major military offensives, pushing out Ethiopian National Defence Forces (ENDF) and Eritrean forces from Mekelle, Tigray’s capital, and other cities. Though the Ethiopian government claimed that the withdrawal of troops from Mekelle and other towns was a strategic move to allow humanitarian efforts to occur, regional analysts quickly discredit the government. ENDF troops knew that if they did not withdraw, they risked the possibility of being killed or becoming prisoners of war (POWs). After marching into Mekelle with cheering crowds, TDF paraded 7 000 ENDF POWs. In response to TDF’s successes, PM Abiy called for an immediate ceasefire that the UN and other western countries welcomed. However, the TDF asserted that they would only adhere to the ceasefire if several conditions are met, including the immediate withdrawal of Eritrean troops and for Amhara militias to return to pre-war territories. On the humanitarian front, the famine conditions worsen. In the first two weeks of July, the number of people facing famine conditions increased by 50 000 to 400 000. Another 1.8 million are on the brink of famine. 33 000 children severely malnourished. So far, the conflict has displaced 2 million people. The international community and aid organisations have urged the government to allow convoys with much-needed aid into Tigray. The World Food Programme (WFP) finally travelled to Mekelle with 50 trucks delivering 900 tonnes of goods and other emergency supplies. Although the Ethiopian government allowed humanitarian flights to Tigray, the director-general of the Ethiopian civil aviation authority, Wesenyeleh Hunegnaw, said that the Ministry of Foreign Affairs had not preapproved such flights. On the political front, PM Abiy won the contentious elections with the majority of the votes, as expected.
Tigray Conflict: A Timeline Of Atrocities
Tigray Conflict
Section 1400: Terrorism Links: Groups & Individuals
10/2024
See COPYRIGHT information below.
